Disparate Impact: A Statistical Analysis of Virginia Police Stop Outcomes
“This data was essential to this case. It shows a disgraceful disparity in enforcement of traffic laws, with Black drivers getting the short end of the stick. Richmond is not the only locality with this problem; the state wide statistics show a remarkable record of picking on Black drivers. And subsequent reports by the Commonwealth show that the trend continues. One would think that Virginia's citizens would cry out in protest over this situation, but they don't.”
- Judge John A. Gibney; U.S. v. Moore Decision
In February 2024, a Federal Judge in the Eastern District of Virginia ruled that the Richmond Police Department (RPD) had been selectively enforcing traffic laws against Black motorists, denying them equal protection under the law. The judge’s ruling relied heavily on a statistical analysis of RPD’s traffic stops collected under the Virginia Community Policing Act (VCPA).
The VCPA data showed that Black people stopped by RPD were much more likely to be searched and arrested than White people, regardless of the neighborhood where the stops occurred. The racial disparities in stop outcomes were so severe that, when combined with a historical analysis of racial bias in Richmond’s government, the judge dismissed a criminal indictment against a Black driver. The case, US v. Moore, has the potential to be a landmark in equal protection law.
JULIAN is now releasing its report “Disparate Impact: A Statistical Analysis of Virginia Police Stop Outcomes” which replicated the same statistical test performed in Moore for each law enforcement agency in Virginia. This report provides novel insight into racial disparities in traffic stop outcomes throughout the Commonwealth. We are also releasing two dashboards that visualize racial outcome disparities in Virginia police stops.
Our investigation found statistically significant disparities in over 100 Virginia law enforcement agencies. 39 agencies, including many of the Commonwealth’s largest police departments, showed significant disparities in at least three of five tests performed.
